Statistics

To prevent having 1 of those 3%. Test for the CA Markers before you breed. 

Previous hypothetical statistics have been that 35 to 55% of all arabians are derived from CA Carrier bloodlines. Mathematically that would break down to 25% of all arabians *are* Carriers. Statistically that means that 3% of all foals born each year would be affected.

These statistics are based on collected information from numerous older stud farm's stable records, the test herds and research of Drs. Lahunta, Fanfanelli and Sponseller and private records. With the currant CA Marker Scanning Test available, Dr, Cecilia Penedo, PhD, who leads research into the disease at the University of California, Davis, 20 affected foals have been referred to her lab in the past five years. She and her colleagues have analyzed data from more than 250 horses related to the affected foals, and found that 30% of those animals are carriers of the disease.

However, to establish any general statistics of any accuracy a larger database of information is necessary. A minimum of 1000 individual arabians must be tested, or other wise confirmed as Carriers by being a parent of a confirmed CA affected foal, in order to obtain the correct ratio of CA Carriers and CA Affecteds to the number of "normal/clear" horses in the breed population. At the moment the analyzed data from 250 horses is far short of the required 1000 to draw any specific conclusions.

There is a large factor of genetic researchers who feel that the Bedu stallion ZOBEYNI was one of the source carriers.  This stallion exists in the background of 90% of the Arabian breed. That is a statistical fact. Nevertheless, there is also a number of researchers who do not think that ZOBEYNI was a suspect CA Carrier. Others still are designating MESAOUD or PHAROAH as possible CA Carriers. Most agree that there were more than one and that more generations of repetitive breeding selections has narrowed the genetic pool down to the point where this recessive mutated allele has a greater chance to express itself.